October 15, 2011

Could You Have Bred This Horse?

ROCKET TWENTYONE

Werk Nick Rating: D

True Nicks Rating: NR (Not Rated)

Kris S. Bloodstock Rating: 7.5 - 8

(Werk rating based on A-F scale)  (Kris  S. Rating based on 1 - 10 scale)

 

A great example of an anomaly breeders can face with commercial "nick ratings" is the filly who won the 2011 Arlington-Washington Lassie.  ROCKET TWENTYONE is a filly whose mating is a "D" by eNicks (Werk) and NR (Not Rated) by the second system, True Nicks.   Many times, breeders will find themselves determined to breed to specific sires for one reason or the next.  From my own experience, it has been the sire is the current "hot horse".  Knowing that more and more publications are picking up and printing commercial ratings of matings, it is becoming increasingly tempting to cross reference mating plans on these commercial mating platforms. 

In the case of ROCKET TWENTYONE, the mating is not only rated poorly, it is one of the worst ratings possible to have a mating receive from these platforms, one finding it "not ratable".  ROCKET TWENTYONE nevertheless, became a Grade 3 stake winner in only her second start.  How did she defy the odds?  Well, in the opinion of this agency, she didn't.  Her mating definitely displays classic patterns shown historically to produce top level runners.  The rating given by Kris S. Bloodstock on this agency's scale is an 8.  The mating shows classic patterns applied in about 60% of the ancestry, is nearly perfectly sex balanced and hits in critical areas of the tree. 

A breeder needs to understand historical patterns to be able to breed such a filly.  Additionally, any breeder needs to realize that a mating plan yielding poor commercial mating grades is meaningless.  If a breeder finds a mating that displays proven patterns, is a solid physical cross with sire and dam, and is viable for their purpose, he or she needs to disregard the commercial platform grades and proceed with the mating.  A big point needing to be made is that "Not Rated" is meaningless in that this only shows the service rating the mating has no empirical data to test the proposal. 

Finally, with such services as True Nicks providing their mating scores in sale periodicals that supplement the sales catalogues, buyers need to set these ratings aside as well.  It would be far better to make a short list of physical horses offered in a sale, and examine each horse's mating individually rather than blindly trust a printed commercial nicking grade.  In the case of ROCKET TWENTYONE, a number of commercial sale patrons could easily have turned the page on the filly because they couldn't stomach the grade appearing in the book.  Bravo to the purchaser who bought the filly regardless of the grades, and good work to the breeder who wasn't swayed by these grades, or didn't look at them!